1/Two Scotches at their own floor this week, and the shelf's oddest near-miss. Johnnie Walker Black is $53, Lagavulin 16 is $145 — both plain shelf tickets, neither a members-only deal. Put them together and the pair is the cheapest it has been in the six weeks I have tracked it.
2/Why they sit side by side: the profile model rates them close. On make-up, Lagavulin 16 is the second-closest bottle to JW Black — the smoke in the blend reading across to the Islay malt. Two very different tags, one broadly shared character.
3/The value model doesn't buy it. On worth-for-money it puts fifteen places between them: a $53 everyday blend and a $145 benchmark Islay are not the same call, whatever their profiles share. Take them as a cheap smoky mixer and a keenly-priced icon, not one standing in for the other.
4/So which floor do you take? The Black at $53 for the smoky everyday pour, or the Lagavulin 16 at $145 while it sits at the low end of its range? Both Dan Murphy's. If your local ticket reads differently, tell me the number.
| slot | 08-13 | 08-20 | 08-27 | 09-03 | 09-10 | 09-17 | 09-24 | 10-01 | 10-08 | 10-15 | 10-22 | 10-29 | 11-05 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| list / member | 59.90 observed | 60.90 observed | 56.90 observed | 52.90 observed | 52.90 observed | 54.90 observed | 55.90 observed | 55.90 observed | 55.90 observed | 58.90 observed | 57.90 observed | 56.99 m 54.00 observed | 54.99 m 54.00 observed |
| basis | mean | median | sd | min | max | range | cv | se mean | latest | own-range pctl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| list | 56.53 | 55.90 | 2.43 | 52.90 | 60.90 | 8.00 | 4.3% | 0.67 | 54.99 | 31 |
| member | 56.22 | 55.90 | 2.58 | 52.90 | 60.90 | 8.00 | 4.6% | 0.72 | 54.00 | 31 |
| moments | m1 mean | m2 var | m3 skew | m4 ex-kurt | 95% band of the mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| list | 56.53 | 5.91 | 0.23 | -0.41 | 55.2 – 57.8 |
| # | candidate | price | CEARP | price − CEARP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnnie Walker Black Label 12 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 1L | $55.97 | $55.90 | +0.07 |
| 2 | Dewar's 15 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL | $79.99 | $52.64 | +27.35 |
| 3 | Isle Of Skye 8 Years Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL | $61.99 | $51.68 | +10.31 |
| 4 | Johnnie Walker Blue Label Blended Scotch Whisky 1L | $256.19 | $50.90 | +205.29 |
| 5 | Johnnie Walker Blue Label Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL | $239.95 | $50.90 | +189.05 |
| 6 | Johnnie Walker Blue Indian Festive Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL | $286.00 | $50.85 | +235.15 |
| 7 | Johnnie Walker Black Ruby Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL | $67.99 | $50.80 | +17.19 |
| 8 | Johnnie Walker Double Black Blended Scotch Whisky 1L | $65.80 | $50.64 | +15.16 |
| 9 | Johnnie Walker Green Label Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL | $103.00 | $50.41 | +52.59 |
| 10 | Compass Box Glasgow Blend Scotch Whisky 700mL | $89.99 | $50.40 | +39.59 |