From the front page · Thread · The whole shelf · 2026-10-08

On the Tasmanian shelf, fame is the premium

1/First time I've run the Tasmanian shelf on its own. Fifteen bottles, all priced live at Dan Murphy's this Thursday. The quieter distillers sit closest to their own juries. The island's marquee names, Lark and Overeem, carry the widest premiums.

2/How I read it: each price against the fair value its own ten-seat jury gives it, in percent. Nothing here dips under its own mean, so "closest" is least-over, not a discount. A map of who the shelf makes you pay most above fair.

3/The near end. Lawrenny Homestead at $155 is the single least-over, about 15%. Callington Mill Enigma at $100, near 16%. Hellyers Road Double Cask at $120, close to 17%; its Roaring Forties at $99, about 18%. The honest cheap way in is the two under $120.

4/The words behind the shelf, pooled from its own reviews: soft and malty, a tropical edge, a coffee note, a thread of peat and something savoury. That's the character the Tasmanian shelf carries. Not a description of any one bottle in it.

5/The dear end is all marquee malt. Lark Symphony at $147 sits about 49% over its own mean, and that's a 500 mL bottle. Lark Cask Strength, also 500 mL, $259, near 41%. IronHouse Tasman Port Cask $230, about 38%. Live tickets, not stale ones.

6/So the read: a Tasmanian shelf where the quiet distillers are priced closest to fair and the famous names carry the island tax. Cheapest honest pour this week, the $99 Hellyers Roaring Forties or the $100 Callington Mill Enigma? Tell me your local ticket.

Sources

Coverage: 15 of 15 members priced live in the 2026-10-08 harvest (100%) — grounding.coverage (n_observed/n_members).
Price band $98.99–$258.99, median $168.99; scope-average CE 360° mean ≈ $146.52 — grounding.price_band, grounding.ce_360_mean_avg.
Shelf character words (region-level, parent-relative, pooled over 11 reviews): soft, malty, tropical, coffee, peat, savoury — grounding.words (noise tokens "banana", "bitterness", "sea", "nuances" set aside as sparse or non-descriptive). No per-bottle tasting notes are asserted; the words describe the shelf, not any one bottle.

End	Item	Price	Gap %	Priced
Hot 1	Lawrenny Homestead Single malt Whisky700mL	$155	+14.70%	observed 2026-10-08
Hot 2	Callington Mill Enigma Whisky 700mL	$100	+16.26%	observed 2026-10-08
Hot 3	Hellyers Road Double Cask Whisky 700mL	$120	+16.73%	observed 2026-10-08
(hot)	Hellyers Road Roaring Forties Tasmanian Single Malt Whisky 700mL	$99	+17.86%	observed 2026-10-08
(hot)	LARK No.151 Fire Trail	$169	+18.15%	observed 2026-10-08
Cold 1	Lark Symphony Malt Whisky 500mL	$147	+48.54%	observed 2026-10-08
Cold 2	Lark Cask Strength Single Malt Australian Whisky 500mL	$259	+41.31%	observed 2026-10-08
Cold 3	IronHouse Distillery Tasman Whisky - Port Cask - Tasmanian Single Malt	$230	+38.49%	observed 2026-10-08
(cold)	Overeem Port Cask Single Malt Whisky 700mL	$198	+28.96%	observed 2026-10-08
(cold)	Overeem Sherry Cask Single Malt Whisky 700mL	$195	+28.73%	observed 2026-10-08

Omissions

None recorded.

Notes for reviewer

Flagged: first run of the Tasmanian shelf on its own, and two of the three cold-end bottles are 500 mL (Lark Symphony $147, Lark Cask Strength $259). The gap % is over each bottle's own CE 360° jury, so it is size-aware, but please confirm the post's size labels read clearly before posting — a reader scanning raw dollars could otherwise think the 500 mL Larks dearer or cheaper than they are against 700 mL peers.
"Hot"/"cold" are value labels only (premium over the bottle's own jury), never sales velocity or a trend; no bottle sits under its own mean, so nothing here is a discount.

Format note

Whole Shelf, scope Tasmania (region), vintage 2026-10-08.1, pack region-tasmania-aggregate.json. Gap basis PERCENTAGE; ce_gap_pct=(price−CE 360° mean)/price×100, each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; 'hot'=smallest premium (least over fair value), 'cold'=largest. No bottle sits below its own mean, so 'hot' is not a bargain. 'Hot'/'cold' are value labels only, never velocity or trend. Coverage 15 of 15 priced live in the 2026-10-08 harvest (100%). First time this scope has been run on its own, so no cool-down disclosure applies. Sources holds the stored top/bottom notable-mover cut, not the full ranked shelf. Two cold-end Larks are 500 mL; sizes are named in the post.

Frontmatter as merged

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source file: drafts/2026-10-08-whole-shelf-tasmania.md