From the front page · Thread · The whole shelf · 2026-10-01

Thirty-seven bourbons, and the whole gap is two Van Winkles

1/Four of the five bourbons closest to fair value on the Kentucky shelf sit under $80. The whole gap lives at the top, in two Old Rip Van Winkles parked near a thousand dollars. All 37 priced live at Dan Murphy's this Thursday; 10 have moved since last look.

2/How I'm reading it: each price against the fair value its own ten-seat jury gives it, in percent. Nothing here dips below its own mean, so the near end is "least over", not a discount. Just the bourbons priced closest to what their peers reckon they're worth.

3/The least-over end, all live. Buffalo Trace at $56, a whisker over its jury at +1.33%. Ezra Brooks at $70, +0.78%. Basil Hayden's at $80, +0.54%, the tightest on the board. Maker's Mark ($57) and the litre of Wild Turkey 81 ($72) follow close behind, both near +2%.

4/The shelf's own words, pooled off its reviews, Kentucky-wide: proof, cornbread, honey, toffee, oak, a cool line of mint. That's the character the region keeps charging into the glass. It describes the whole shelf, not any single bottle in it.

5/The dear end. Two Old Rip Van Winkles lead — the 12 Special Reserve at $1000 and the 10-year 107 proof at $900, both near +29% over their own number. Allocated stock, priced like it. Then Blanton's at $304, +26.86%. Real live prices, not stale tags.

6/The tidy read. Kentucky is a shelf with an honest floor and a wild ceiling, and the ceiling is all allocation. Thirty-seven bottles, the least-over pours cheap and plain. For a first proper pour, the $56 Buffalo Trace or the $80 Basil Hayden's?

Sources

Coverage: 37 of 37 members priced live in the 2026-10-01 harvest (100%) — grounding.coverage (n_observed/n_members).
Price band $54.90–$899.99, median $80.00; scope-average CE 360° mean ≈ $113.08 — grounding.price_band, grounding.ce_360_mean_avg.
Shelf character words (region-level, parent-relative, pooled over 29 reviews): proof, cornbread, honey, toffee, oak, mint — grounding.words (noise tokens "original", "grain", "leather", "dried" set aside as less evocative). No per-bottle tasting notes are asserted; the words describe the shelf, not any one bottle.
Cool-down (decision 15): Kentucky (region): led 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-kentucky.md 21 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: 10 of 37 bottles changed price or 360° zone (27%; the bar is 10%) (2026-09-10.r to 2026-10-01.1)

End	Item	Price	Gap %	Priced
Hot 1	Basil Hayden's Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whiskey 700mL	$80	+0.54%	observed 2026-10-01
Hot 2	Ezra Brooks Kentucky Straight Bourbon 700mL	$70	+0.78%	observed 2026-10-01
Hot 3	Buffalo Trace Bourbon 700mL	$56	+1.33%	observed 2026-10-01
(hot)	Maker's Mark Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whisky 700mL	$57	+2.01%	observed 2026-10-01
(hot)	Wild Turkey Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whiskey 81 proof 1Litre	$72	+2.09%	observed 2026-10-01
Cold 1	Old Rip Van Winkle 12 Year Old Special Reserve 750mL	$1000	+29.05%	observed 2026-10-01
Cold 2	Old Rip Van Winkle 10 Year Old 107 Proof Bourbon Whiskey 700mL	$900	+29.04%	observed 2026-10-01
Cold 3	Blanton's Straight From The Barrel Bourbon 700mL	$304	+26.86%	observed 2026-10-01
(cold)	Angels Envy Bourbon 750mL	$105	+16.55%	observed 2026-10-01
(cold)	WILD TURKEY BOURBON RARE BREED 700ML	$110	+14.21%	observed 2026-10-01

Omissions

None recorded.

Notes for reviewer

Cool-down line states 27% in words; the post reports the raw count (10 of 37) to stay off any trend or cause framing, per decision 15.
Pooled shelf words were trimmed from ten raw tokens to six evocative ones; "original", "grain", "leather" and "dried" dropped as noise/less distinctive. No per-bottle notes asserted.
All dollar figures and gap percentages in the post appear in the Sources table or bullets. Van Winkle prices ($1000, $900) and Blanton's ($304) are the only four-/three-figure tickets; every one is a live observed price.

Format note

Whole Shelf, scope Kentucky (region), vintage 2026-10-01.1, pack region-kentucky-aggregate.json. Gap basis PERCENTAGE; ce_gap_pct=(price−CE 360° mean)/price×100, each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; 'hot'=smallest premium (least over fair value), 'cold'=largest. No bottle sits below its own mean, so 'hot' is not a bargain. 'Hot'/'cold' are value labels only, never velocity or trend. Coverage 37 of 37 priced live in the 2026-10-01 harvest (100%). Sources holds the stored top/bottom notable-mover cut, not the full ranked shelf.

Frontmatter as merged

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source file: drafts/2026-10-01-whole-shelf-kentucky.md