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Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05

From the Chivas Regal guy · Thread · Price raid · 2026-10-01

Same maker, a sixth of the price: Chivas 18 stands in for the 25

1/Chivas Regal 25 is a $646 blend this week — the house's flagship, priced for the cabinet.

2/The engine's third-closest match to it sits in the same family: Chivas Regal 18, at $114. One maker, two age statements, five hundred and thirty-two dollars between them. The 18 is $114 now, where it was $136 when we last wrote it up.

3/What makes this pairing stand out is the agreement. The value model and the profile model usually pull apart; here both rank the 18 third-closest to the 25. Two independent reads landing on the same bottle is rarer than one.

4/Not the same whisky — the 25's extra seven years in oak are real, and they are some of what the $646 buys. But as the engine's stand-in, it's $114 against $646. Which would you actually pour? If your local ticket on the 18 differs, tell me.

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py cycle payload, artefact 2026-10-01-cycle/value-pick/chivas-regal-25-year-old-blended-scotch-whisky-700ml-chivas--085949, grounded on vintage 2026-10-01.1; harvest pair base 2026-09-24, latest 2026-10-01 (grounding.trigger.base_harvest / latest_harvest).
  • Chivas Regal 25 Year Old: shelf ticket $646 (claim value 646.0; grounding.ref.price_this_harvest 646.0), flat on last harvest ($646; grounding.ref.price_last_harvest 646.0), not a member offer.
  • Chivas Regal 18 Year Old: shelf ticket $114 (claim value 114.0; grounding.cand.price_this_harvest 114.0), against $125 last harvest (grounding.cand.price_last_harvest 125.0; move_flag OK), not a member offer.
  • Saving $532 (grounding.saving 532.0 = 646 − 114); price ratio 0.18 (grounding.ratio 0.1765), down from 0.19 last harvest (grounding.trigger.ratio_before 0.1934 → ratio_after 0.1764). "Five hundred and thirty-two dollars" is the saving spelled out.
  • Engine pairing: Chivas 18 is CE rank 3 in the Chivas 25's cohort (grounding.ce_rank 3; ce_score 0.182) and VSM rank 3 (grounding.vsm_rank 3; vsm_score 0.969). Same country (grounding.same_country true).
  • Cool-down (decision 15), verbatim from etl/cooldown_change.py: Chivas Regal 18 Year Old Blended Scotch Whisky 700mL: led 2026-09-17-price-raid-chivas-18.md 14 day(s) earlier — CHANGED, may lead again; the piece must say what changed: price $136 -> $114 (2026-09-17.r to 2026-10-01.1). The post states the 18 at $114 against $136 at that earlier feature. The reference, the Chivas 25, is FREE (no thread in the last 4 weeks).

Omissions

  • Light form: no CE 360° jury for the reference, so this post does not say what the Chivas 25's own cohort reads it worth — only what it costs on the shelf. No CE 360° band is shown for the candidate either.
  • The Chivas 18 "eased" to $114, a move under Price Raid's bar; it is stated as the week's figures (and the $136 from its last feature, per the cool-down check), never as a repricing, a drop, or a raid.
  • The engine scores profile and worth, not age directly; the 25's extra years are noted as what the premium partly buys, not as a model feature.
  • No peer beyond the engine's third-ranked match is examined; a closer stand-in may exist that was not live-checked this cycle.

Notes for reviewer

None recorded.

Format note

Value pick, automated light form. The payload carries two shelf tickets, the engine's ranks and scores, the saving and the week's event; it does NOT carry the reference's CE 360° jury, so there is no ten-seats read of the Chivas 25 here — I open on its shelf ticket. The trigger is the stand-in easing: the Chivas 18 is $114 this week, under Price Raid's bar, so it stays a value pick, not a raid, and the thread does not call it a drop. Shelf basis both legs. Candidate ranks in the reference's CE top-5 (CE rank 3), and the profile model agrees (VSM rank 3) — a rare both-ways match.

Frontmatter as merged
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 "title": "Same maker, a sixth of the price: Chivas 18 stands in for the 25",
 "angle": "value-pick",
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 "status": "draft",
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   "kind": "price",
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 "verified_at": "2026-10-01T09:59:02.000Z",
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  "384924": 113.95
 },
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 "quality_notes": "soft cooldown: 1 repeat(s) inside the 4-week cool-down, each with a changed finding; the piece must say w"
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