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Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05

From the Jack Daniel's guy · Thread · Compare the pair · 2026-10-01

The profile model keeps pairing a Tennessee 1L with a Kentucky 700

1/Two American whiskeys the engine's profile model keeps shelving together: Jack Daniel's Old No.7 and Buffalo Trace. On make-up it reads them as close kin, a cosine of 0.94. Both sit at or near their own floor this week — the Jack a litre at $73, the Buffalo Trace a 700 at $56.

2/Check the measure before the money. The Jack is a full litre; the Buffalo Trace a standard 700. Per litre that's $73 against roughly $80. So the Kentucky bourbon is the dearer pour by volume, even with the lower ticket. The shelf price flatters it.

3/Where they part is worth. On value-for-money the model doesn't rate the pairing at all — it scores near zero. A Tennessee whiskey and a Kentucky bourbon that drink in the same register, then, not one filling in for the other. Shared character, different answers.

4/Both near their own floor, and together they come to $129, a shade under their recent average. Two everyday American pours at keen tickets. Which earns the daily shelf spot for you — the $73 Jack by the litre, or the $56 Buffalo Trace? Tell me what yours rings up.

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py cycle payload, artefact 2026-10-01-cycle/compare-the-pair/jack-daniel-s-old-no-7-tennessee-whiskey-1l-buffalo-trace-bo-a8679f, grounded on vintage 2026-10-01.1, window as-of 2026-10-01.
  • Jack Daniel's Old No.7 Tennessee Whiskey 1L: shelf ticket $73 (claim value 73.0; grounding.ref.price), not a member offer; at its own-history floor (percentile 0.0, quiet_discount, 10 observations).
  • Buffalo Trace Bourbon 700mL: shelf ticket $56 (claim value 56.0; grounding.cand.price), not a member offer; near its own-history floor (percentile 10.0, quiet_discount, 10 observations).
  • Per-litre: Jack $73.00/L (a 1L bottle); Buffalo Trace about $80.00/L ($56 ÷ 0.7L = $80.00). Arithmetic from the two tickets and the stated volumes; the Buffalo Trace is dearer by volume.
  • Similarity: VSM profile cosine 0.9410 (grounding.vsm_score); CE utility score 0.0095 (grounding.ce_score) — a near-zero value-model read, so the pairing is profile-led only.
  • Bundle: $73 + $56 = $129, against a pair-window average of about $133.50 (grounding.pair_level.value 128.9 vs reference_mean 133.5). Reported as a plain observation, not a movement or a bundle recommendation.
  • Both FREE on the cool-down: neither bottle led a thread in the last 4 weeks (etl/cooldown_change.py, as-of 2026-10-01).

Omissions

  • Light form only: no CE 360° band, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test on the two means. Ruled out here, not implied.
  • The 1L vs 700mL size difference is real; the comparison is not like-for-like, which is why the per-litre figure is given. No bundle price is offered as a recommendation; $129 is a literal sum of two live tickets.
  • The pair-level sum is the selection trigger; its p-value is not quoted. With a handful of snapshots it is an ordinal gate, so "a shade under their recent average" is an observation, never a trend or significance claim (CHANNEL.md §1).

Notes for reviewer

  • Flagged: the pairing is a profile near-twin (VSM cosine 0.94) but a value-model non-match (CE score ~0.01). Confirm the post reads as "two American whiskeys that drink alike, both keenly priced", not "these are the same whisky".
  • Flagged: the 1L/700mL size mismatch inverts the naive price read (Buffalo Trace is dearer per litre). The per-litre line is load-bearing; check it survives any edit.
  • The sibling Jack Daniel's candidate (Old No.7 1L vs 1.75L) was dropped this cycle: it shares this anchor and is a same-product pack-size comparison the spec says to omit.

Format note

Compare the pair, automated light form. Two shelf tickets, each bottle's own-history position, and the pair's VSM/CE scores; no CE 360° bands, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test on two means (light form). Both shelf basis, neither a member offer. Size mismatch stated: Jack Daniel's 1L against Buffalo Trace 700mL (1.43×, under the 2× omit threshold), so a per-litre figure is given and the two tickets are not read as like-for-like. The pairing is VSM-led — profile cosine 0.94 — while the value model scores it near zero (CE ~0.01), so this is shared character, not one standing in for the other.

Frontmatter as merged
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