Scotch at Dan Murphy's, priced every Thursday. Lagavulin 16 and the ten bottles that define it.
Dan Murphy's · week of 2026-11-05

From the front page · Thread · The whole shelf · 2026-09-10

A $55 Wild Turkey is Kentucky's fairest pour; Pappy the dearest

1/The fairest pour in Kentucky tonight is a $55 Wild Turkey — the plain 81-proof one. It sits 0.36% over what its own CE 360° jury of peers reckons it's worth. Of every bottle I checked, no ticket lands nearer its own number than that.

2/Widen out and the whole floor came in: thirty-eight Kentucky bottles, every one priced live this week. Big enough to be a proper shelf, small enough to check end to end. So no curated subset — the lot.

3/The hot end, meaning closest to fair value, not cheapest: Wild Turkey 81 at $55 (0.36% over), Ezra Brooks at $70 (0.99%), Maker's Mark 700mL at $56 (2.24%). Basil Hayden's ($80) and Weller Special Reserve ($100) round out the tight pack.

4/None of those is a discount, mind. Every gap here runs one way, above the jury — the hot ones just barely. It's the everyday wall of names the market has settled a fair number on.

5/Reads the way the words do: honey and toffee, cornbread, dried fruit, a little leather and rye. Straightforward Kentucky, and for the most part priced straight.

6/The cold end is the allocated stuff. Old Rip Van Winkle 10-year at $900 (31.27% over its own jury) and the 12-year at $1,000 (30.99%). Blanton's Straight From The Barrel at $304 sits 30.78% over — a near dead heat with the two Pappys.

7/Those aren't data artefacts. The live tickets match the model bottle for bottle; the trophy shelf is simply where the hunt sets the price, not the pour. Angels Envy ($100, 17.97% over) and Blanton's Gold ($203, 15.93%) are the next rung down.

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-09-10-replay/whole-shelf/kentucky-region-631b41, vintage 2026-09-10.r. Gap basis: percentage (grounding.gap_basis).
  • Coverage: 38 of 38 members observed (100%); price band $50.95–$899.99, median $80.50; CE 360° mean-avg about $108.07 (grounding.coverage, grounding.price_band, grounding.ce_360_mean_avg).
  • Shelf words (parent-relative, 30 reviews pooled): proof, honey, cornbread, dried, original, leather, toffee, rye, grain, mint (grounding.words).
  • Hot 5, smallest premium over own mean (grounding.hot, all observed): Wild Turkey 81p $55 (0.36% over); Ezra Brooks $70 (0.99%); Maker's Mark 700mL $56 (2.24%); Basil Hayden's $80 (2.27%); Weller Special Reserve $100 (2.38%).
  • Cold 5, largest premium (grounding.cold): Old Rip Van Winkle 10 Year $900 (31.27% over); Old Rip Van Winkle 12 Year $1,000 (30.99%); Blanton's Straight From The Barrel $304 (30.78%); Angels Envy $100 (17.97%); Blanton's Single Barrel Gold Edition $203 (15.93%).

Omissions

  • Full coverage: 38 of 38 members priced live this cycle, no carried (last-observed) prices to name.
  • The Sources cut is the aggregate's stored top/bottom movers, not the full 38-bottle ranking; the sidecar does not store every member's gap.
  • 'Hot' and 'cold' are value-position labels only — distance from each bottle's own CE 360° mean, never sales velocity, popularity, or a price move over time. No bottle here sits below its own mean, so 'hot' is the smallest premium, not a bargain.

Notes for reviewer

None recorded.

Format note

Whole Shelf, scope Kentucky (region), vintage 2026-09-10.r (pack region-kentucky-aggregate.json). Gap basis: percentage — read from the aggregate as stored (max/min price ratio ≥ 2, and this shelf runs $50.95–$899.99). Coverage: 38 of 38 members priced live in the 2026-09-10 harvest (100%). ce_gap_pct = (price − ce_360_mean) / price × 100, each bottle's premium over its own CE 360° consensus; 'hot' is the smallest premium (closest to fair value, not a discount), 'cold' the largest. Sources holds the aggregate's stored top/bottom cut, not every member's gap.

Frontmatter as merged
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source file: drafts/2026-09-10-whole-shelf-kentucky.md