From the front page · Thread · Hot 21 / Cold 21 · 2026-09-10

The whole Scotch pool, and not one bottle beats its jury

1/Five Scotch shelves pooled onto one yardstick this week — 159 bottles, each measured against what its own CE 360 jury reckons it is worth. The obvious question: how many came in under their jury's number? None of them. Not a single bottle.

2/So 'hot' is a relative word here. It means nearest the line, not below it. Closest of the whole 159 is Ballantine's Finest, $69 the litre, sitting dead on its mean. Johnnie Walker Red 1.125L ($77) and the litre ($69) sit just behind, all within a whisker.

3/The hot end is everyday blends, top to bottom. Cutty Sark $59, Dimple 12 at $54, Dewar's 12 for $63. None of these is a discount. They are just the bottles nobody is charging a premium on right now.

4/The cold end is badge and age doing the talking. Chivas Regal Ultis leads it at $285 — better than half again over its jury's number, a 58.73% premium. Talisker Port Ruighe ($149) runs it close on percentage at 54.81%.

5/Keep climbing and the premium sticks. Aberlour A'Bunadh $155, Glenfarclas 25 at $390, Craigellachie 23 at $780. Age and rarity, all priced well over what the model reads the liquid as worth.

6/One number worth flagging: the cold cut runs nineteen, not twenty-one. Lowlands had only two bottles priced live, under our coverage floor, so it sits the cycle out. Campbeltown had nothing on the shelf at all. Two cold ranks vacated, neither backfilled.

7/The honest read of the Scotch wall: no bargains anywhere, just bottles nearer or further from fair, and the value all pooled at the cheap blended end. Which everyday blend earns the shelf spot for you — the $54 Dimple or the $69 Ballantine's?

Sources

generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-09-10-replay/hot-21-cold-21/ballantine-s-finest-blended-scotch-whisky-1l-johnnie-walker--f0475c, vintage 2026-09-10.r, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json.
Pool: 159 members, price band $50.99–$800.00 (median $107.50), mean-average CE 360 about $124.73 (grounding.pool). Scale: ce_gap_pct, percentage premium over each item's own CE 360 mean (grounding.scale).
Contributing Whole Shelf packs, all 100% priced live this cycle: Speyside (75/75), Highlands (36/36), Islay (16/16), Islands (10/10), Multi-Regional Blend (20/20) (grounding.contributing_scopes). Cited pieces: 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-speyside.md, 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-highlands.md, 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-islay.md, 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-islands.md, 2026-09-10-whole-shelf-blends.md (the Multi-Regional Blend piece).
Zero of the 159 sit below consensus: hot_shortfall 0, and every hot ce_gap_pct is ≥ 0.0 (params, grounding.hot). Stated in posts 1–2.
Hot 21 (smallest premium, all observed): Ballantine's Finest 1L $69 (0.0%); JW Red 1.125L $77 (0.27%); JW Red 1L $69 (0.29%); Cutty Sark $59 (0.34%); Dimple 12 $54 (0.48%); Dewar's 12 $63 (0.69%); McAllister 1L $67 (0.77%); Glen Moray Classic 1L $88 (0.78%); Glen Moray Shiraz Finish $72 (0.81%); Grant's Triple Wood 1L $68 (0.81%); Glen Moray Classic 700mL $71 (0.82%); Dewar's White 1L $69 (0.82%); Glen Grant Arboralis $71 (0.87%); Label 5 Classic Black 1L $70 (0.89%); Label 5 Premium Reserve 12 $68 (1.0%); Glen Moray Sherry Cask $72 (1.02%); Glen Moray Peated $72 (1.02%); Glen Moray Classic Port Cask $72 (1.02%); Label 5 Classic Black 700mL $51 (1.09%); Grant's Triple Wood 1.125L $80 (1.17%); Chivas Regal 12 $58 (1.19%) (grounding.hot).
Cold 19 (largest premium, all observed): Chivas Regal Ultis $285 (58.73%); Talisker Port Ruighe $149 (54.81%); Compass Box The Peat Monster $85 (37.83%); Bunnahabhain Stiuireadair $108 (31.19%); Glenfiddich Grand Cru 23 $559 (28.08%); Aberlour A'Bunadh $155 (25.48%); Glenfarclas 25 $390 (25.37%); Glengoyne Cask Strength $173 (24.11%); Tomintoul 25YO $733 (23.27%); Craigellachie 23 $780 (23.13%); Glenmorangie Signet $370 (22.91%); Chivas Regal 25 $646 (22.29%); Ardbeg An Oa $75 (21.73%); Balvenie 14 Caribbean Cask $161 (21.41%); Monkey Shoulder $58 (21.12%); Bunnahabhain 12 $128 (20.63%); Lagavulin 11 Sweet Peat $165 (19.98%); Laphroaig Quarter Cask $170 (19.94%); Smokehead High Voltage $125 (19.33%) (grounding.cold).
Coverage / shortfall: requested_cut 21; delivered 21 hot, 19 cold (params.n_hot, params.n_cold, params.cold_shortfall 2). Omitted scope Lowlands (2 of 2 priced live, below the Whole Shelf floor). Missing scope Campbeltown (no catalogue items this cycle). Two Lowlands cold entries were excluded and not backfilled: Bladnoch Vinaya (would have been cold rank 6) and Glenkinchie 12 (cold rank 11) (grounding.omitted_scopes, grounding.missing_scopes, params.omissions).

Omissions

Nothing in the pool is under its own CE 360 mean; ce_gap_pct never goes negative, so 'hot' is the smallest premium, not a bargain. hot_shortfall is 0 — all 21 hot ranks filled, all above consensus. Stated in posts 1–2.
Lowlands omitted (2 of 2 priced live, under Whole Shelf's coverage floor) and Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items this cycle), both named. The cut therefore runs 21 hot / 19 cold against a requested 21; cold_shortfall is 2. The two vacated cold ranks — Bladnoch Vinaya and Glenkinchie 12, both Lowlands — were removed, not backfilled.
Only items live-checked in their own Whole Shelf piece are pooled, so a scope that checked a subset would carry that gap through to here. All five contributing scopes were 100% observed this cycle, so no price is carried and no member is dropped for staleness.
'Hot'/'cold' are value-position labels only — never sales velocity, popularity, or a movement over time. Every figure is this week's cross-sectional position of a bottle against its own consensus.

Notes for reviewer

None recorded.

Format note

Hot 21 / Cold 21, vintage 2026-09-10.r, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json. ce_gap_pct is each bottle's premium over its own CE 360 consensus, worked as (price − CE 360 mean)/price × 100, and has never gone negative — so 'hot' means closest to fair value, never below it and never a discount. Nothing in the 159-member pool sits under its mean this cycle. One common percentage scale across every pooled region, whatever basis each region's own Whole Shelf piece used. Contributing: Speyside (75/75), Highlands (36/36), Islay (16/16), Islands (10/10), Multi-Regional Blend (20/20), all priced live. Lowlands omitted (2 of 2 priced live, under Whole Shelf's coverage floor); Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items). The cut runs 21 hot / 19 cold: two Lowlands cold entries (Bladnoch Vinaya, Glenkinchie 12) removed and not backfilled.

Frontmatter as merged

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   "item": "Grant's Triple Wood Scotch Whisky 1.125L",
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 "format_note": "Hot 21 / Cold 21, vintage 2026-09-10.r, pack hot-21-cold-21-aggregate.json. ce_gap_pct is each bottle's premium over its own CE 360 consensus, worked as (price − CE 360 mean)/price × 100, and has never gone negative — so 'hot' means closest to fair value, never below it and never a discount. Nothing in the 159-member pool sits under its mean this cycle. One common percentage scale across every pooled region, whatever basis each region's own Whole Shelf piece used. Contributing: Speyside (75/75), Highlands (36/36), Islay (16/16), Islands (10/10), Multi-Regional Blend (20/20), all priced live. Lowlands omitted (2 of 2 priced live, under Whole Shelf's coverage floor); Campbeltown missing (no catalogue items). The cut runs 21 hot / 19 cold: two Lowlands cold entries (Bladnoch Vinaya, Glenkinchie 12) removed and not backfilled.",
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source file: drafts/2026-09-10-hot-21-cold-21.md