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From the Blanton's guy · Thread · Similarity surprise · 2026-08-13

Bourbon and a Tasmanian citrus-cask malt, ranked neighbours

1/The engine's ninth-closest pair in the whole set: Blanton's Single Barrel Special Reserve, a Kentucky bourbon at $133, and Lark's Chinotto Citrus Cask, a Tasmanian single malt at $218. Two shelves that never meet.

2/It calls them near-neighbours on flavour make-up alone. Kentucky char set beside a citrus-cask Tassie malt, grouped by the model's arithmetic on the profile, not by anyone pouring the two together.

3/The value read points at the Tasmanian. Lark's Chinotto sits under the floor of its own peer group and at the bottom of its own recent range, both signals cheap and neither leaning on the other. $218 the bottle.

4/Blanton's does not line up the same way. Against comparable bourbons it sits over the ceiling, dear for what it is, even while its own recent tickets run low. Mixed signals, so it is not the value call here.

5/One profile the model can barely separate, split across two hemispheres, and the value pointing squarely at the malt. Blanton's Single Barrel at $133, or the $218 Lark? (Both Dan Murphy's, this Thursday.)

Sources

  • generate_cycle.py replay payload, artefact 2026-08-13-replay/similarity-surprise/blanton-s-single-barrel-special-reserve-kentucky-straight-bo-be3e5a, vintage 2026-08-13.r, own-history window as-of 2026-08-13.
  • Blanton's Single Barrel Special Reserve Kentucky Straight Bourbon 700mL: live ticket $133 (claim / grounding.ref.price), shelf basis, not a member offer. Band position 'over ceiling'; cohort direction expensive, own-history direction cheap, axes disagree (agrees false). 3 observations.
  • Lark Chinotto Citrus Cask Single Malt Whisky 500mL: live ticket $218 (claim / grounding.cand.price), shelf basis, not a member offer. Band position 'under floor'; cohort cheap and own-history cheap, both axes agree (agrees true, direction cheap). 3 observations.
  • Closeness: CE rank 9 (within the format's cutoff of 10); VSM profile cosine 0.8044, VSM rank 14 (candidate.pair, rank_diff 5).
  • Never shelve together: same_country false (Blanton's USA/bourbon, Lark Australia/single malt); the names carry the styles. Payload price_ratio 2.29 was computed on a $305 list figure; at the live $218 the ratio is about 1.6, so the split quoted is country/style, not price tier.

Omissions

  • Light form only: no numeric CE 360 band bounds, no cross-read CEARP, no Welch t-test. The post uses the position labels ('under the floor', 'over the ceiling'), not the numbers.
  • The pair qualifies on ONE bottle's two-axis agreement (the Lark Chinotto). Blanton's does not agree; the post frames it as the mixed contrast, not a second buy signal.
  • Bottle sizes differ (700mL vs 500mL); no like-for-like or per-litre value claim is made beyond the profile similarity.
  • No per-bottle tasting notes are asserted; the payload carries no per-item flavour words for this pair.

Notes for reviewer

  • Flagged: qualifies via the Lark Chinotto's two-axis agreement only; Blanton's axes disagree (over its cohort ceiling, low on own-history). Confirm the 'never shelve together' reads as genuine (US bourbon vs Tasmanian malt, engine's ninth-closest) and the value read lands only on the Lark.
  • Flagged: the payload's price_tier_divergent was set from a $305 figure, but the live/claim price is $218; the draft quotes $218 and rests the surprise on the country/style split, not the price tier. Confirm this reconciliation.
  • Replay draft on 2026-08-13.r; may_publish: false and never flips in replay.

Format note

Similarity-surprise, light form: two live tickets, each bottle's band-position label and own-history direction, the pair's CE rank. Full form (numeric CE 360 bands, cross-read CEARP, Welch t-test) is unbuilt in the module and NOT quoted. The pair qualifies on the Lark Chinotto's two-axis agreement (under its cohort floor AND at its own-history floor); Blanton's sits over its own cohort ceiling while its own-history runs low, so its two reads disagree and it is the mixed contrast, not a second buy signal. Both prices shelf basis, neither a member offer. Sizes differ (700mL vs 500mL); the price_tier ratio in the payload (2.29) was computed against a $305 list figure — the live ticket is $218, at which the tier gap is narrower, so the piece leans on the country/style split, not the price tier.

Frontmatter as merged
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 "date": "2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z",
 "title": "Bourbon and a Tasmanian citrus-cask malt, ranked neighbours",
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 "format_note": "Similarity-surprise, light form: two live tickets, each bottle's band-position label and own-history direction, the pair's CE rank. Full form (numeric CE 360 bands, cross-read CEARP, Welch t-test) is unbuilt in the module and NOT quoted. The pair qualifies on the Lark Chinotto's two-axis agreement (under its cohort floor AND at its own-history floor); Blanton's sits over its own cohort ceiling while its own-history runs low, so its two reads disagree and it is the mixed contrast, not a second buy signal. Both prices shelf basis, neither a member offer. Sizes differ (700mL vs 500mL); the price_tier ratio in the payload (2.29) was computed against a $305 list figure — the live ticket is $218, at which the tier gap is narrower, so the piece leans on the country/style split, not the price tier.",
 "claims": [
  {
   "item": "Blanton's Single Barrel Special Reserve Kentucky Straight Bourbon 700mL",
   "kind": "price",
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 "verified_at": "2026-09-27T05:30:42.000Z",
 "verified_by": "etl/price_verify.py (harvest sidecar danmurphys_whisky_products_2026-08-13.normalised.csv, as of 2026-08-13)",
 "verified_prices": {
  "52994": 132.99,
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premium over CE 360° · shared scale 0% to +70% across the eleven
source file: drafts/2026-08-13-similarity-blantons-sbsr-lark-chinotto.md